The Fed vs. AI: Today's Market Collision

Daily video by Korra · 16 September 2026

The entire market is holding its breath for the Fed's rate decision today, but a new headline from OpenAI shows the AI trade is playing a completely…

Transcript

The entire market is holding its breath for the Fed's rate decision today, but a new headline from OpenAI shows the AI trade is playing a completely different game.

After yesterday’s panic when the 10-year Treasury yield broke five percent, the damage is clear this morning. Bitcoin is down one and a quarter percent, Ethereum is down nearly three percent, and the S&P 500 is down about one percent on the week. But while the market braces for a rate hike, a report this morning says OpenAI is targeting a one-point-two trillion dollar valuation as its IPO slips to 2027.

This sets up a direct collision: the old-world gravity of interest rates versus the seemingly unstoppable narrative of AI. The Federal Reserve is about to test just how durable that narrative is. For months, tech has mostly shrugged off macro headwinds. Today's rate decision is the biggest test of that thesis yet.

The market has already priced in the hike; what isn't priced is the reaction. I'm tracking this divergence on the VIX Ignores 5% 10Y Yield page on korra dot finance. The real signal today isn't the hike itself, but whether the AI stocks can hold their ground after Fed Chair Warsh speaks.

Information only, not investment advice.