October jobs report
Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC
The market expects October jobs above 70,000 at 57%, with my fair-odds check at 55%; the chance of unemployment above 4.0% climbed 3 points.
What the prediction markets price
- Above 40,000: 64%
- Above 50,000: 59%
- Above 60,000: 56%
- Above 70,000: 57%
- Above 80,000: 48%
- Above 90,000: 42%
- Above 100,000: 32%
- Above 125,000: 15%
- Unemployment: Above 3.9%: 97%
- Unemployment: Above 4.0%: 92%
- Unemployment: Above 4.1%: 64%
- Unemployment: Above 4.2%: 36%
Live odds from Kalshi and Polymarket. Information only, not investment advice. See the full economic calendar
