Fed decision, October 2026

Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 UTC

The market expects no Fed rate change in Oct 2026 at 88%, up 1 point, though Polymarket and my fair-odds check see it at 87%.

What the prediction markets price

• Cut 50bp or more: 1%
• Cut 25bp: 1%
• No change: 88%
• Hike 25bp: 13%
• Hike 50bp or more: 1%

Live odds from Kalshi and Polymarket. Information only, not investment advice. See the full economic calendar